Lets assume you were a veteran investor, that knows about everything that goes behind the market.
What would be your "best" assumption of d3 release date?
Some investors base their decision from the game director's attitude or even by small things like Jay Wilson's posture in Blizzcon, etc.... This is actually what happens when you take NZT Pill (from the movie Limitless)
You gather bits of information from all over the place and put the pieces together. Was Jay Wilson confident about the current state of the game in Blizzcon? How many programmers work on the game? Looking at the trend of working speed and etc.
I'll give my assumption first.
According to Blizzcon 2010 interview, Jay Wilson wasn't able to give answers to many questions that people asked in Q/A session. He also stated that "There were no variations on Demon Hunter skill yet, meaning no rune addition"
He also said "we're working on finding the best way to trade, and looked unsure of the current state with trading"
I'm also very confident that there were no real work done on the battle net side. The network that connects all the users together. Considering they always "iterate", god knows how long the battle net will be done.
I predict the release date is going to be somewhere 2012 2Q. Blizzard works rediculously slow, they always say they "iterate"... what they need to do is sit down on a group table, and pick the best idea and stick with it. Their losing so much time just implementing and coding things that are not even goign to be used.
I'll give my assumption first.
According to Blizzcon 2010 interview, Jay Wilson wasn't able to give answers to many questions that people asked in Q/A session. He also stated that "There were no variations on Demon Hunter skill yet, meaning no rune addition"
He also said "we're working on finding the best way to trade, and looked unsure of the current state with trading"
Well for starters, they have since said that all skills and runes are in the game in some form. Which obviously doesn't mean that certain skills/runes couldn't go through further iteration, but its still a significant progress from Blizzcon. And that was only a few months after Blizzcon, so even iterations could take a similar amount of time. As for trading, thats something that can easily be implemented during the 6 month beta.
I'm also very confident that there were no real work done on the battle net side. The network that connects all the users together. Considering they always "iterate", god knows how long the battle net will be done.
Well if you want to know how much work has been done on Battle.net, go play SC2. It will be almost the same thing with a different UI and different matchmaking, which isn't really something you iterate.
I predict the release date is going to be somewhere 2012 2Q. Blizzard works rediculously slow, they always say they "iterate"... what they need to do is sit down on a group table, and pick the best idea and stick with it.
Which is the development style that produces plenty of crappy games. You can theorycraft all you want, but in the end you have to know how something works in the game in order to see if it works. Not to mention that sitting down and discussing stuff is clearly part of the iteration process, as you have to brainstorm ideas in the first place. Obviously there are other ways to make a good game, but its still a process that consistently produces excellent games. If you don't like it, honestly don't bother following Blizzard games. Until they start pumping out crappy games theres no reason to change their development process.
I predict Q1 2012. The beta will probably come out some time this summer so that they could have a 6 month beta and still release the game in 2011, as they have stated that is their goal, but there will be feedback/implementations that delay it a bit past Q4 2012 and into early 2012.
“We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.” - Albert Einstein
I'm rooting for November 14/21/28 of 2011. Will provide plenty of time to be purchased during the holidays and a few weeks before winter holidays begin. Will be picked up easily by plenty of people as gifts if they aren't already mindlessly clicking away.
I feel like it's wishful thinking though, but from a profit standpoint it wouldn't sound too bad. They could cut down their 6-month beta by a few months and focus solely on technical issues, then work on technical+content issues once the game is out. Balance and content isn't as important, imo, for Diablo. Technical issues, however, could severely cripple a game to its death; FFXIV being an example of a terrible UI and an incredibly large amount of, quite serious, technical problems.
I'm saying either January 31st 2012, or March 13th 2012. Games always come out on Tuesdays, keep that in mind in your guesses!
Why the gap between January and March?
You dont like February ?
Haha well honestly it's never a good month for me, but besides that it is a very short month as MaxPow3r said. The main reason I skipped it though is because sadly enough, companies wait for a date with some numerical relevance to their game. For example, Halo Reach came out exactly 117 days after th BETA ended, 117 is Master Chief's Spartan production number. One could speculate that the BETA date was chosen so the release (which they had planned 117 later) would land in September, the 7th month. Anyone familiar with Bungie knows their obsession with the number 7.
So I feel Blizzard, even with such a anxious fan base will wait until a relivent date to release Diablo 3 for marketing reasons. March 13th 2012 is my Golden Ticket, it just looks right to me.
“We act as though comfort and luxury were the chief requirements of life, when all that we need to make us happy is something to be enthusiastic about.” - Albert Einstein
I think they could care less about holiday release, look at sc2 release date. But there is not much coming out this fall, yes there is some big ones here and there like gears 3, but not a multitude of triple A titles like last year, so there is an opportunity to be had here if I thought they did care.
think about cool dates, dates that look cool, like every thought it was 9/9/09 (lawl), but others such as november 11 2011 11/11/11 (which is a friday, but still)
keep blizzcon in mind, dont think it will be before blizzcon, might hurt attendance, will probably want to announce official release date AT blizzcon "exclusively" and have enough time after to advertise that date to the public, so blizcon plus 4-6 weeks i could see, or at least a quarter they could possibly release in.
So I feel Blizzard, even with such a anxious fan base will wait until a relivent date to release Diablo 3 for marketing reasons. March 13th 2012 is my Golden Ticket, it just looks right to me.
3/13/2012
:rolleyes:
I agree with the special date kind of thing. Diablo 2 had a number of coincidental dates, but if they had planned Diablo 3 for a 2011 release, they're way off from any significant dates(as far as I know) since most of them are in June-ish. March 13th sounds nice, I admit. March 23rd isn't too bad, either, though it is a Friday. 3-23-10 was the last update to D2, according to Wiki. But, to be honest, I'm thinking Blizzard will try to either gun it for the 2011 release as planned or go with a "oh well we already missed it; let's take our time" kind of mentality: Therefore waiting until even June 29 2012 to get that special date release.
I think they could care less about holiday release, look at sc2 release date. But there is not much coming out this fall, yes there is some big ones here and there like gears 3, but not a multitude of triple A titles like last year, so there is an opportunity to be had here if I thought they did care.
keep blizzcon in mind, dont think it will be before blizzcon, might hurt attendance, will probably want to announce official release date AT blizzcon "exclusively" and have enough time after to advertise that date to the public, so blizcon plus 4-6 weeks i could see, or at least a quarter they could possibly release in.
Yeah, I agree, the exact date doesn't matter so much for Blizzard. Their more recent releases weren't too hung up on dates, but since they planned for a 2011 release in the past and currently haven't completely ruled it out, I'm thinking they would still try to gun for it: it'd either be late November or early December. Any later than that, they might as well leave it for 2012.
I can definitely see a release date announcement at Blizzcon. Almost no chance that they'd even consider announcing a release date before then, let alone the actual game.
draw 2 vertical lines for the 1's = ||
then a very "boxy" 8 (like in a calculator 8
then the 2 vertical lines again ||
just think of the addvertisment, a horizontal line connects the first 2 vertical lines from the middle making an H
the right side of the 8 disappears makeing an E
and the last 2 vertical lines remain the same ||
H + E + || = HELL
(or kind of the opposite where it says H E | |, then adds and subtracts to say the date 11/8/11)
Saying that would be a good marketing day, just like we all thought 9/9/9 would be a good marketing day (flop them around for 6 6 6) probably too early to hope for, but if it is, i win. Plus it is on a Tuesday.
What would be your "best" assumption of d3 release date?
Some investors base their decision from the game director's attitude or even by small things like Jay Wilson's posture in Blizzcon, etc.... This is actually what happens when you take NZT Pill (from the movie Limitless)
You gather bits of information from all over the place and put the pieces together. Was Jay Wilson confident about the current state of the game in Blizzcon? How many programmers work on the game? Looking at the trend of working speed and etc.
I'll give my assumption first.
According to Blizzcon 2010 interview, Jay Wilson wasn't able to give answers to many questions that people asked in Q/A session. He also stated that "There were no variations on Demon Hunter skill yet, meaning no rune addition"
He also said "we're working on finding the best way to trade, and looked unsure of the current state with trading"
I'm also very confident that there were no real work done on the battle net side. The network that connects all the users together. Considering they always "iterate", god knows how long the battle net will be done.
I predict the release date is going to be somewhere 2012 2Q. Blizzard works rediculously slow, they always say they "iterate"... what they need to do is sit down on a group table, and pick the best idea and stick with it. Their losing so much time just implementing and coding things that are not even goign to be used.
So yea. I predict 2Q 2012
Well if you want to know how much work has been done on Battle.net, go play SC2. It will be almost the same thing with a different UI and different matchmaking, which isn't really something you iterate.
Which is the development style that produces plenty of crappy games. You can theorycraft all you want, but in the end you have to know how something works in the game in order to see if it works. Not to mention that sitting down and discussing stuff is clearly part of the iteration process, as you have to brainstorm ideas in the first place. Obviously there are other ways to make a good game, but its still a process that consistently produces excellent games. If you don't like it, honestly don't bother following Blizzard games. Until they start pumping out crappy games theres no reason to change their development process.
I predict Q1 2012. The beta will probably come out some time this summer so that they could have a 6 month beta and still release the game in 2011, as they have stated that is their goal, but there will be feedback/implementations that delay it a bit past Q4 2012 and into early 2012.
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Why the gap between January and March?
You dont like February ?
I feel like it's wishful thinking though, but from a profit standpoint it wouldn't sound too bad. They could cut down their 6-month beta by a few months and focus solely on technical issues, then work on technical+content issues once the game is out. Balance and content isn't as important, imo, for Diablo. Technical issues, however, could severely cripple a game to its death; FFXIV being an example of a terrible UI and an incredibly large amount of, quite serious, technical problems.
And lol @ maxpow3r. They must get a lot done the 29, 30, & 31.
Find any Diablo news? Contact me or anyone else on the News team
Haha well honestly it's never a good month for me, but besides that it is a very short month as MaxPow3r said. The main reason I skipped it though is because sadly enough, companies wait for a date with some numerical relevance to their game. For example, Halo Reach came out exactly 117 days after th BETA ended, 117 is Master Chief's Spartan production number. One could speculate that the BETA date was chosen so the release (which they had planned 117 later) would land in September, the 7th month. Anyone familiar with Bungie knows their obsession with the number 7.
So I feel Blizzard, even with such a anxious fan base will wait until a relivent date to release Diablo 3 for marketing reasons. March 13th 2012 is my Golden Ticket, it just looks right to me.
think about cool dates, dates that look cool, like every thought it was 9/9/09 (lawl), but others such as november 11 2011 11/11/11 (which is a friday, but still)
keep blizzcon in mind, dont think it will be before blizzcon, might hurt attendance, will probably want to announce official release date AT blizzcon "exclusively" and have enough time after to advertise that date to the public, so blizcon plus 4-6 weeks i could see, or at least a quarter they could possibly release in.
Yeah, I agree, the exact date doesn't matter so much for Blizzard. Their more recent releases weren't too hung up on dates, but since they planned for a 2011 release in the past and currently haven't completely ruled it out, I'm thinking they would still try to gun for it: it'd either be late November or early December. Any later than that, they might as well leave it for 2012.
I can definitely see a release date announcement at Blizzcon. Almost no chance that they'd even consider announcing a release date before then, let alone the actual game.
11/8/11
going to be hard to see/explain, but here it goes
draw 2 vertical lines for the 1's = ||
then a very "boxy" 8 (like in a calculator 8
then the 2 vertical lines again ||
just think of the addvertisment, a horizontal line connects the first 2 vertical lines from the middle making an H
the right side of the 8 disappears makeing an E
and the last 2 vertical lines remain the same ||
H + E + || = HELL
(or kind of the opposite where it says H E | |, then adds and subtracts to say the date 11/8/11)
Saying that would be a good marketing day, just like we all thought 9/9/9 would be a good marketing day (flop them around for 6 6 6) probably too early to hope for, but if it is, i win. Plus it is on a Tuesday.
2 November would be cool: 2/11/2011. It's on a Wednesday, so I dunno...
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