[Guide]Gambling guide for Beginners *updated for 2.06*

  • #1
    Updated for 2.06 to reflect weight changes for set items. Also changed the ratio of class specific items to regular items to 1/3 (or 1:2)
    Please note that I have only changed some numbers this time around. Some of the texts might be outdated to the effect that some of those items are simply not interesting anymore.

    Updated for 2.05 assuming that Kadala uses the same weightings that were datamined recently
    Disclaimer: Calculated all shard amounts with an assumed chance for a legendary of 2%.
    Hey guys,

    if you're like me, you always wonder, on which item type you should spend your 500 Blood Shards. So after this wonderful datamined thread (http://www.diablofans.com/forums/diablo-iii-general-forums/diablo-iii-general-discussion/87504-legendary-roll-weights-check-what-the-chances-are) has appeared, I decided to make a list of how many shards would be required on average for the interesting legendaries.

    This is with our Wizard class in mind. Note that in some cases, it's better to gamble with another class because that class has fewer legendary options in that slot, but this doesn't apply to Wizards (at least for those items I will cover).

    I will sort this by item type and say a few words about each item, like why we want it and how important it is. All of those items have BiS potential for their respective builds.

    For the calculations I have used the cost to gamble an item of the required type, an expected 2% chance to get a legendary (not confirmed, taken from the thread that collects gambling results), some modifiers, which I will name where I have used them and of course the values from the weighting thread.

    Statistical disclaimer:
    All those numbers are average numbers. You can get your items much sooner or much later because of the almighty RNG.

    edit: Please forgive me that I didn't account for the fact, that only ~85% of all item rolls use the smart loot system. So all numbers should be a little higher, however the relation between items wouldn't change.

    edit2: See Mirrorball for an example calculation
    Let's start:

    Chest
    Cindercoat
    Which builds? all fire builds
    How important? mandatory if you use an AP spender as your main attack
    Expected shards to get one? 5000

    Tal Rasha's Relentless Pursuit
    Which builds? all non-fire builds
    How important? not required, just BiS because of 5 potential primary stats
    Expected shards to get one? 2500

    Vyr's Astonishing Aura
    Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
    How important? you need three pieces, though this might not be the best choice because of the other 2 chest options
    Expected shards to get one? 2500

    Ring
    Right element Stone of Jordan
    Which builds? all
    How important? not required, but clearly BiS
    Expected shards to get one? 41600
    Modifier: I have multiplied the result with 4 because you probably would not use one with the wrong elemental bonus. The odds of the other stats rolling perfect, so that you can reroll the elemental damage are rather small.

    Unity
    Which builds? solo play
    How important? not required, but nice toughness boost if you have 2 of them (1 on follower)
    Expected shards to get one? 20800

    Restraint
    Which builds? maybe Wand of Woh builds, I don't know but some people seem to want these rings desperately
    How important? not required, may be a great dps boost (only with both rings of course)
    Expected shards to get one? 104000

    Focus
    Which builds? maybe Wand of Woh builds, I don't know but some people seem to want these rings desperately
    How important? not required, may be a great dps boost (only with both rings of course)
    Expected shards to get one? 104000

    Wyrdward
    Which builds? certain lightning builds
    How important? can't tell
    Expected shards to get one? 20800

    Orbs
    +2 Mirrorball
    Which builds? This item creates it's own build
    How important? above mandatory for a such build (obviously)
    Expected shards to get one? 6100
    Modifier: Times 2 because we want 2 extra missiles, not one. Please be aware that I don't know if both rolls are equally probable.

    Step by step calculation: Gambling 1 Orb costs 5 Blood Shards, with an expected legendary chance of 2% we need (on average!) 50 purchases per 1 legendary, so we're at 250 Blood Shards per leg. Now the weighting of Mirrorball at Kadala is 50/610, which means out of 610 legendary Orbs we should see 50 Mirrorballs, that's 1 Mirrorball per 12.2 legs. Now that 1 leg costs 250 shards, we need 250 * 12.2 shards = 3050 shards for 1 Mirrorball (still only average) And with the additional requirement of the Mirrorball to roll +2 MMs and not just +1, we can double that amount to 6100(assuming both are equally probable).
    Tal Rasha's Unwavering Glare
    Which builds? none specific, just to list all Tal pieces because the 3 and 4pc bonuses are good
    How important? not required
    Expected shards to get one? 1525

    Firebird's Eye
    Which builds? all fire builds that don't use MMs
    How important? not required, but potential BiS because of the bonus fire damage
    Expected shards to get one? 1525

    Myken's Ball of Hate
    Which builds? Electrocute builds
    How important? BiS
    Expected shards to get one? 3050

    Wands
    Wand of Woh
    Which builds? This item creates it's own build (and is one of the best items in the game)
    How important? above mandatory for a such build (obviously)
    Expected shards to get one? 148500 (might be much higher)
    Modifier: I have calculated this with a shard cost of 45 per Wand. Since you cannot gamble for them directly, you have to buy "mystery 1h weapon", which costs 15 shards and from the recently gathered data it seems likely to be a 1/3 ratio.
    Pants
    Pox Faulds
    Which builds? Melee builds
    How important? not required, I never tried them, but I know, they're quite popular
    Expected shards to get one? 6625

    Hexing Pants of Mr Yan
    Which builds? certain Wand of Woh builds
    How important? not required, but a high dps option if you always move
    Expected shards to get one? 13250

    Vyr's Fantastic Finery
    Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
    How important? you need three pieces, the pants compete with the Cpt. Crimson set for some builds
    Expected shards to get one? 1325

    Bracers
    Strongarm Bracers
    Which builds? Builds that use Black Hole
    How important? not required, but a high dps option because Black Hole triggers the bonus damage
    Expected shards to get one? 2150

    Warzechian Armguards
    Which builds? speed farm purposes
    How important? mandatory for maximum clear speed (normal bounties for example)
    Expected shards to get one? 4300

    Nemesis Bracers
    Which builds? No build, just keep them in the inventory and equip them before clicking on any shrine
    How important? not required, but more elite packs are more elite packs
    Expected shards to get one? 2150

    Trang'Oul Coils
    Which builds? Archon builds, but don't wear them, use them to refresh the cooldown
    How important? not required, but might be handy
    Expected shards to get one? 2150

    Ancient Parthan Defenders
    Which builds? certain lightning builds
    How important? can't tell
    Expected shards to get one? 4300

    Shoulders
    Homing Pads
    Which builds? No build, just keep them in the inventory and equip them as needed
    How important? not required, but it's effect can be pretty useful
    Expected shards to get one? 1375

    Spaulders of Zakara
    Which builds? No build, they're used when you do something that brings many deaths with it to avoid repair costs
    How important? not required, but it's effect can be pretty useful
    Expected shards to get one? 1375

    Gloves
    Magefist
    Which builds? all fire builds
    How important? not required, but definitely BiS because it can roll 5 primary stats
    Expected shards to get one? 1300

    Frostburn
    Which builds? all cold builds
    How important? not required, but definitely BiS (don't know if 5 primary stats are possible too, edit: not possible according to Blayreau)
    Expected shards to get one? 13000 (yes, 13k)

    Vyr's Grasping Gauntlets
    Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
    How important? you need three pieces, the gloves compete with Magefists
    Expected shards to get one? 1300

    Also, please don't throw away Tasker and Theo, they're far and away BiS for a pet WD and as rare as Frostburn

    Helms
    Right element Andariel's Visage
    Which builds? all builds
    How important? not required, possibly BiS, but might interfere with the Aughild Set if you need/want to use non-Aughild Bracers
    Expected shards to get one? 12000
    Modifier: Times 4, see SoJ, also I calculated with a cost of 7.5 per helm applying the same ratio as with Wands

    Tal Rasha's Guise of Wisdom
    Which builds? all builds
    How important? not required, listed for completeness but don't choose this over Aughild's
    Expected shards to get one? 3000
    Modifier: Also calculated with a cost of 7.5 per helm (see above)

    Velvet Camaral
    Which builds? Electrocute builds
    How important? BiS
    Expected shards to get one? 30750
    Modifier: Calculated with a cost of 15 per helm (see above)

    Belts
    String of Ears
    Which builds? high torment builds
    How important? not required, BiS for high toughness
    Expected shards to get one? 6050 (5550 as WD)

    Harrington Waistguard
    Which builds? all builds
    How important? not required, BiS for high dps
    Expected shards to get one? 6050 (5550 as WD)

    Tal Rasha's Brace
    Which builds? all builds
    How important? not required, listed for completeness, only a temporary option imo
    Expected shards to get one? 3025

    Thundergod's Vigor
    Which builds? lightning builds
    How important? BiS
    Expected shards to get one? 3025 (2775 as WD)

    Amulets
    Moonlight Ward
    Which builds? all arcane builds
    How important? not required, but far and away BiS
    Expected shards to get one? 14420

    Tal Rasha's Allegiance
    Which builds? all non-arcane builds
    How important? not required, but one of the better options to go for the set bonuses
    Expected shards to get one? 14420

    The Star of Azkaranth
    Which builds? no specific build, just wanted to list the rarest item in the game
    How important? -
    Expected shards to get one? 721000 (621000 as WD)

    Dovu Energy Trap
    Which builds? certain lightning builds
    How important? can't tell
    Expected shards to get one? 28840 (24840 as WD)

    Boots
    Ice Climbers
    Which builds? all builds except heavy CDR builds (rather use Cpt. Crimson)
    How important? not required, but the effect should make life a lot easier (I don't have them)
    Expected shards to get one? 17750

    Vyr's Swaggering Stance
    Which builds? Archon, the new (and only?) hotness
    How important? you need three pieces, the boots compete with the Cpt. Crimson set for some builds
    Expected shards to get one? 1775

    Shields
    Lidless Wall
    Which builds? nothing specific, consider this if you want/need toughness
    How important? can't tell
    Expected shards to get one? 900

    Swords Shard of Hate
    Which builds? lightning builds
    How important? can't tell
    Expected shards to get one? 29550 * X (!!)
    X is the amount of weapons you need to buy to get 1 sword.

    Please draw your own conclusions and feel free to correct me.
    Last edited by Solmyr77: 7/8/2014 12:35:29 PM
  • #2
    Quote from Solmyr77
    Frostburn
    Which builds? all cold builds
    How important? not required, but definitely BiS (don't know if 5 primary stats are possible too)
    Expected shards to get one? 8000 (yes, 8k)

    Frostburn may be BiS for frost builds, but I wouldn't count on it unless you are very lucky and/or put a lot of time into the game.



    Frostburn can roll only 4 primary affixes, and the cold damage bonus can roll up to 15% cold damage unlike 20% for magefist. They are really disappointing compared to magefist damage-wise, but there's the unique effect to take into account (they won't proc much with comet/frozen orb due to their low skill/effect coefficient).

    They always roll life per hit, frostburn will always look like this: %cold, int, life/hit, random affix as primary stats. The possibility of those gloves being good entirely depends on whether or not you roll crit or crit damage as the ONLY random affix. And, well, hands without cc+cd are pretty much worthless. And.. due to them being very rare (1-2%), if you have crit + crit dmg on frostburn, consider yourself lucky.
    Last edited by Blayreau: 5/12/2014 8:09:26 PM
  • #3
    So if you're playing arcane EB with wand of woh, moonlight ward, Soj and andy's you've beat the game and are free to create an alt :).

    Might I ask how you calculated these values btw? Did you grab the chance to get a legendary from the community calculations?
    And did you get the expected shard count by multiplying the drop chance by the shards per item? If yes you might want to add some statistic disclaimers to prevent people yelling when they haven't gotten their item after exactly the ammount of shards listed (since ironically the chance to get the expected value or higher is usually 50ish%).
    Last edited by Limdul: 5/13/2014 2:20:34 AM
  • #4
    These "expected shards to get one" don't really fly. It took me 18k shards to finally get a Mirrorball +2 and I'm going on 10k for a Cindercoat. It's not like the game keeps track of how many times you gambled for a specific item and eventually awards it to you at around a specific shard point.
    Last edited by Sanctuaryy: 5/13/2014 2:39:07 AM
  • #5
    Should change "expected" to "average"
    There is only one god and his name is Death.
    And there is only one thing we say to Death. Not today.
  • #6
    Quote from Blayreau

    Frostburn may be BiS for frost builds, but I wouldn't count on it unless you are very lucky and/or put a lot of time into the game.

    That's something I wanted to show with those numbers. I don't even have Magefists that beat my rares yet.

    Quote from Limdul
    So if you're playing arcane EB with wand of woh, moonlight ward, Soj and andy's you've beat the game and are free to create an alt :).

    Might I ask how you calculated these values btw? Did you grab the chance to get a legendary from the community calculations?
    And did you get the expected shard count by multiplying the drop chance by the shards per item? If yes you might want to add some statistic disclaimers to prevent people yelling when they haven't gotten their item after exactly the ammount of shards listed (since ironically the chance to get the expected value or higher is usually 50ish%).

    I'll do that for clarification.

    Quote from Sanctuaryy

    These "expected shards to get one" don't really fly. It took me 18k shards to finally get a Mirrorball +2 and I'm going on 10k for a Cindercoat. It's not like the game keeps track of how many times you gambled for a specific item and eventually awards it to you at around a specific shard point.

    Sorry, that's RNG. You're not guaranteed to get that legendary after said amount of shards, it's just an average amount. I don't want to go into probability calculations that tell us, after which amount of shards we have a >50% or >95% chance of getting a certain item.

    I'll edit the calculations for the Mirrorball into the OP as an example.
    Last edited by Solmyr77: 5/13/2014 2:55:18 AM
  • #7
    I think this is a very great thread, great work. Regarding the comments - of course it's RNG, but at some point you don't know what to gamble anymore and this thread might help to spark some ideas. Of course some of the items are super rare, but it also puts perfectly into perspective that gambling for Wand of Woh is ridiculous compared to everything else, even Frostburn.

    Note: I personally think the number for WoW is much much higher. I didn't keep track of it but I'm sure not every other weapon was a wand, but much less. Maybe just one in four or so. I'm gambling for Tasker and Theo now, but maybe at some point I feel like gambling for weapons again (spent 32k shards on 1h weapons with really no luck at all), I'll report to you then.

    A suggestion: what if for every slot you add some "by-products"? For example, chests might occasionally drop Blackthorne's which, unless you have a perfect Tal Rasha's, are a good supplement. Or the other sources that can be useful as well. For example, of the 5 gloves we can gamble 3 are common (Magefist, Gladiator's, St. Archew's) and 2 are rare (Frostburn and Tasker & Theo). If one gets the latter, they shouldn't be salvaged but kept in stash since they're BiS for pet WDs. Maybe a bit too much for the post, but maybe something that can be added in spoilers, or just one line (keep: items A, B, C - salvage: items X, Y, Z).
  • #8
    what would be the probability of getting the Ice Climbers boots?
  • #9
    As a wizard I find this topic very interesting. But i think that the amount of shards needed is deceiving because lets say you are spending 500 shards and you are gambling sources. After 200 shards you get a triumverate or something, doesn't that kind of reset the chance on the next legendary? not really reset it but the chance on getting 2 legendaries after eachother is of course smaller.
    Valen - Wizard
    Ubuntu - Witch Doctor
    Kenta - Monk
  • #10
    Quote from Malpercio
    As a wizard I find this topic very interesting. But i think that the amount of shards needed is deceiving because lets say you are spending 500 shards and you are gambling sources. After 200 shards you get a triumverate or something, doesn't that kind of reset the chance on the next legendary? not really reset it but the chance on getting 2 legendaries after eachother is of course smaller.

    No it doesn't. Drops are purely RNG. If you get a Wand of Woh, in theory you can get another one right off the next mob. The loot table for the next mob has the exact same probabilities.That being said, of course it's very unlikely to get two Wand of Wohs in a row.

    It's like rolling a dice: you have a chance of ~16.6% to roll a 6. If you get a 6, and you roll the dice again, what's the chance to get a 6 on the next roll? Right, it's 16.6% again. Every individual roll (of a dice, or of an item from a mob) has an individual drop chance unrelated to previous events. If you look at all your drops in one day (i.e., 10 dice rolls in a row), the chance of getting 10 times a 6 is super small. (Very informal lesson on probability - for more background on that please check the theorycrafting forums; there was a thread about statistics theory.)
  • #11
    Quote from zhafsan
    what would be the probability of getting the Ice Climbers boots?

    Edited them in.

    Also thanks for the appreciation.

    Bagstone, I have put T&T in because they're super rare and because a beginner playing a Wiz might see them and think "garbage". I don't want to go so far as to remind people not to throw away a Thunderfury or an item with 3 green numbers ;)
  • #12
    Quote from Malpercio
    As a wizard I find this topic very interesting. But i think that the amount of shards needed is deceiving because lets say you are spending 500 shards and you are gambling sources. After 200 shards you get a triumverate or something, doesn't that kind of reset the chance on the next legendary? not really reset it but the chance on getting 2 legendaries after eachother is of course smaller.

    i bought 6 sources from kadala and got 2 winter flurrys, one after another, and after a few more, got a mirrorball
  • #13
    Nice! I'm also interested on how you are calculating this. But awesome thread!Looks like I'm not getting my ice climbers for a while.

    I wonder if the 2 random attributes on Ice Climbers are 1 primary + 1 secondary or 2 secondary. Potential 5 primary item?
    Last edited by zhafsan: 5/13/2014 7:17:23 AM
  • #14
    I thought i read something from a blizzard member about a time clock ticking away for the time someone kills mobs without receiving a legendary so I don't know the details about that, but it sure sounds like some kind of reset after you have received your legendary.
    Valen - Wizard
    Ubuntu - Witch Doctor
    Kenta - Monk
  • #15
    Quote from Bagstone

    Of course some of the items are super rare, but it also puts perfectly into perspective that gambling for Wand of Woh is ridiculous compared to everything else, even Frostburn.

    Note: I personally think the number for WoW is much much higher. I didn't keep track of it but I'm sure not every other weapon was a wand, but much less. Maybe just one in four or so. I'm gambling for Tasker and Theo now, but maybe at some point I feel like gambling for weapons again (spent 32k shards on 1h weapons with really no luck at all), I'll report to you then.

    I suppose you have read the patch notes, so come tomorrow those 99k might no longer be too optimistic ;)

    Quote from Malpercio
    I thought i read something from a blizzard member about a time clock ticking away for the time someone kills mobs without receiving a legendary so I don't know the details about that, but it sure sounds like some kind of reset after you have received your legendary.

    That's just some kind of safety-net if you go multiple hours without a legendary drop.
  • #16
    Quote from Solmyr77

    I suppose you have read the patch notes, so come tomorrow those 99k might no longer be too optimistic ;)

    It's safe to say I was devastated when I read that. It seems like now it averages for about ~50k (?) shards to get a Wand of Woh. I wasted 32k shards up to this point.

    Anyways, never give up. Gonna save some shards and first thing tomorrow gamble like crazy for Vyr gloves. It's probably gonna take me 30k shards to get them, but I don't care at this point... just do rifts like crazy to get more shards :P
  • #17
    Quote from Bagstone

    Quote from Solmyr77

    I suppose you have read the patch notes, so come tomorrow those 99k might no longer be too optimistic ;)

    It's safe to say I was devastated when I read that. It seems like now it averages for about ~50k (?) shards to get a Wand of Woh. I wasted 32k shards up to this point.

    Anyways, never give up. Gonna save some shards and first thing tomorrow gamble like crazy for Vyr gloves. It's probably gonna take me 30k shards to get them, but I don't care at this point... just do rifts like crazy to get more shards :P

    Well, 50k is too optimistic. One out of 66 legendary Wands should be a Wand of Woh, so you need to purchase 66*50= 3300 Wands, which cost 15*3300=49500 Blood Shards alone. If they don't separate Wands from other weapons, I don't see 50k.
  • #18
    Oh, I misread the Kadala change. Wow. Thanks for clarifying that!
  • #19
    Don't know if I'll manage to do the update tonight, but since set gloves seem to become popular targets: Their expected shard cost is 2100. Magefist goes up to 1050 (reason: larger pool of possible gloves) and Frostburn/T&T go up to 10500.

    That is under the assumption that Kadala uses the same weightings that regular drops use.
  • #20

    You actually updated this for 2.0.5. Nice! Thanks. I was just thinking about his yesterday...

    Between 2000 and 3000 shards for set items (gloves/boots). I've gambled 30k now and haven't seen any class set item (no Tal's, no Akkhan). Managed to complete at least the set bonus thanks to loot sharing, but looking at those numbers I know for sure now that Kadala is just trolling me... :-)

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