40 -> 46% critical chance is 15% more critical hits. This is about 8% more damage with 300% critical hit damage.
15% whirlwind damage is 15% more damage.
You'd need a lot of critical hit damage (like way in excess of 500%) to make the 6% crit give you 15% overall damage.
I think in most cases, the 15% whirlwind damage is better (as long as whirlwind is the vast majority of your damage).
Edit: Yeah, after checking the math a bit, you're not going to get 15% bonus damage from 6% crit with any realistic stats in the game.
However, if you have a ton of other +whirlwind skill damage, it may close the gap a bit. if you wear max whirlwind skill damage gear, you're looking at roughly 10% more damage from the helm roll of whirlwind skill damage.
I still think it's safe to say the whirlwind damage is probably better, as long as you're not doing a lot of non-whirlwind damage.
If you use a lot of other attacks, like overpower, earthquake, avalanche, or other spenders/builders, I'd go with the crit.
I think that you were correct in the first example about the 18 extra 'hits' worth of damage, but I think the mistake was assuming that 18 'hits' is 18% more, because your initial supposition was 100 attacks. Out of your 100 base attacks, 40 would be crits, so you're really doing 220 'hits' off the bat (100 normal damage hits and 120 more from critical damage). So it wouldn't be 118 /110, it'd be 238/220.
Critical hit is more versatile than skill damage, but will be less raw damage for that skill, and that is how it should be in my opinion.
You're forgetting set items, as he progresses he'll be forced to use em, crit chance all the way then, as it applies to everything, including perma ancients.
I don't think most whirlwind barbarians are using Run like the Wind for damage anymore. The lack of 100% movespeed while whirlwinding and removal of Into the Fray sorta dismantled that strategy.
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which would be better if one is sitting at 40ish % crit without the incoming crit reroll?
15% whirlwind damage is 15% more damage.
You'd need a lot of critical hit damage (like way in excess of 500%) to make the 6% crit give you 15% overall damage.
I think in most cases, the 15% whirlwind damage is better (as long as whirlwind is the vast majority of your damage).
Edit: Yeah, after checking the math a bit, you're not going to get 15% bonus damage from 6% crit with any realistic stats in the game.
However, if you have a ton of other +whirlwind skill damage, it may close the gap a bit. if you wear max whirlwind skill damage gear, you're looking at roughly 10% more damage from the helm roll of whirlwind skill damage.
I still think it's safe to say the whirlwind damage is probably better, as long as you're not doing a lot of non-whirlwind damage.
If you use a lot of other attacks, like overpower, earthquake, avalanche, or other spenders/builders, I'd go with the crit.
You get 100 hits + 46 crits * 3 = 238 "hits" of damage with the crit helm
238/220 = 1.081, or 8% bonus damage, like I said earlier
(Btw: bonus crit damage is in addition to your normal 100% damage, so 400% crit damage is actually x5 normal damage on crits)
The formula I use to compute damage with crits is (1 + crit chance * crit damage)
1 + (.4 * 3) = 2.2
1. (.46 * 3) = 2.38, same thing in the end
Critical hit is more versatile than skill damage, but will be less raw damage for that skill, and that is how it should be in my opinion.