If you are a pretty active forum poster / lurker, chances are you've seen countless speculations about legendary drops. Official forums, this forums, reddit, /vg/, etc etc, these discussions have been very entertaining to say the least.
Timed loots, pity timers. rested xp, loot tables, Kadala sniff, streamer buffs, and more have been argued with various "evidences" presented in support and against these.
As a pretty casual player (average 15-20 hours a week), it's very amusing to see if these "It's-not-really-RNG" talks have some grain of truth in them. After all, Diablo 2 had people tracking down IPs and the servers they are connected to all for that phat loot.
So I've decided to log all my leg drops and share them to people.
Majority of these runs are from Rifts with varying difficulty, speed, and grouping. Gambling is also done in different ways to try out theories about the mysterious Kadala. When the bounty buffs goes live in the next patch, I will run some of them periodically and record the data as well.
Evidence from 1 person is hardly anything but I will keep on it because it honestly gave me perspective on how I'm ACTUALLY doing. Whether I'm rushing to clear or crawling through a higher difficulty. Also, It's easy for people to draw conclusions and say "Drop rate too low" when in reality, actual data of their runs might paint a different picture. After all, I would know since I am one of those players who have terrible loot luck. Hell, I've played d3v from release until I beat Diablo on Inferno a month later with not a single legendary drop (the promptly quit). And before logging my data (Paragon 11-195) the only "top tier" loot that I've gotten is a Magefist and a RoRG. And up to now I haven't seen a single Legendary Potion!
So, is it really just Apophenia? or are there really some patterns? We might never know, but it sure is fun to try.
Comments / suggestions / criticisms are always welcome
Thanks for posting. I'm sitting on a pile of data but too lazy to post. Well, and honestly too scared to post because of some stuff that I read recently.
Anyways, some "requests": Could you add a top column to sum it all up (playtime, rifts, legendaries), maybe a few more lines to sum it all up for each individual setup (Torment level, solo/group)? Also, could you separate Kadala legendaries (log them separatly and subtract them from rift legendaries)?
Edit: One interesting thing to see is the wide spread of drop rates. There are instances of 10 legs within really short amount of time, and no legs for a really long time. Exactly RNG. That's why I call BS on all those "10 legs/h" or "0 legs/h" posts...
Thanks for posting. I'm sitting on a pile of data but too lazy to post. Well, and honestly too scared to post because of some stuff that I read recently.
Anyways, some "requests": Could you add a top column to sum it all up (playtime, rifts, legendaries), maybe a few more lines to sum it all up for each individual setup (Torment level, solo/group)? Also, could you separate Kadala legendaries (log them separatly and subtract them from rift legendaries)?
Ok I'll try to add these suggestions.
Also, the reason Kadala is done in "real time" is because of the Kadala sniffing test I've been doing. The theory is if you have a streak of legs from a Rift (2+ in the span of 5 mins), it is also the best time to gamble before Blizz "reset" your leg timer.
hey bro, cool to see you ding these, I've actually got a spreadsheet of my own too. it would be nice to add up a group of say.. 25-50 people's spreadsheets and then average them out for a more "accurate" LPH/GPH/XP Per HR/ETC.
Also, That Comment above about the Going to Kadala When you get a couple drops back to back really fast is a good idea. Im Gunna log those results also, Im Curious to see if there really is something on weight in that idea..
If you are interested in seeing or sending me Info Or if you want to see info that i have stocked up send me a message on my Site @ WWW.FusionStreamD3.Com . KK See ya! Keep Up The Good Work.
curios if you guys have been able to conclude anything from this?
The data we've been collecting is far faaaar anecdotal to conclude anything. After all we're just a drop on the farming population. But looking at these we can MAYBE see trends happening in our toons (warning : might be apophenia).
Like for me example, my character is incredibly streaky as you can see from both the clumps AND the gaps of my spreadsheet.
Another thing is with Kadala. I notice 2 things about her according to my log.
- I definitely get more off her if I do it in a looting streak. And absolutely nothing if I gamble when I'm on a dry spell.
- When I keep gambling on the same piece, she gives a lot of duplicates that mirrors what you get in-game for the same piece (e.g. If you get Swamp Land Waders in your rift you'll get tons from her and no Hammer Jammers)
Fair warming again though, the human mind sees patterns where there isn't. This could very well be just superstitious belief in my part
---
To the people who wants to do what I'm doing or have already one currently, I would be very happy to link your spreadsheets in the OP then if I have time, consolidate it into 1 "Diablofans members Leg Drop Spreadsheet" if I have time
Really like this concept of keeping track. Gonna start doing it myself. Quick question beforehand tho, do you use any sort of template you could share?
I don't really have a template but feel free to copy mine.
Updated with drops from the Anniversary buff. As well as Bounty runs.
I can't seem to post / edit forum posts in my main account. All it says is "Loading Editor". If anyone can point me into the right direction on who to approach regarding this it would be greatly appreciated.
Why is it so many humans cannot grasp the word random.
Have you tried cooking up some "scientific data" on lottery numbers, im sure if you look hard enough, you will see a pattern that will make you rich.
I'll give you a few reasons.
1. random for computers is never random. there is an algorithm out there generating this and it's completely reasonable to try and find patterns in the code.
2. there is no reason to believe this randomness is strictly a simple roll. there easily can be factors that we don't know aobut playing the back ground that could be playing factors into these random rolls.
Why is it so many humans cannot grasp the word random.
Have you tried cooking up some "scientific data" on lottery numbers, im sure if you look hard enough, you will see a pattern that will make you rich.
I'll give you a few reasons.
1. random for computers is never random. there is an algorithm out there generating this and it's completely reasonable to try and find patterns in the code.
2. there is no reason to believe this randomness is strictly a simple roll. there easily can be factors that we don't know aobut playing the back ground that could be playing factors into these random rolls.
Random for computers is still random to the observer (player). You cannot manipulate the randomness in a game like Diablo 3.
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If you are a pretty active forum poster / lurker, chances are you've seen countless speculations about legendary drops. Official forums, this forums, reddit, /vg/, etc etc, these discussions have been very entertaining to say the least.
Timed loots, pity timers. rested xp, loot tables, Kadala sniff, streamer buffs, and more have been argued with various "evidences" presented in support and against these.
As a pretty casual player (average 15-20 hours a week), it's very amusing to see if these "It's-not-really-RNG" talks have some grain of truth in them. After all, Diablo 2 had people tracking down IPs and the servers they are connected to all for that phat loot.
So I've decided to log all my leg drops and share them to people.
Link!
Majority of these runs are from Rifts with varying difficulty, speed, and grouping. Gambling is also done in different ways to try out theories about the mysterious Kadala. When the bounty buffs goes live in the next patch, I will run some of them periodically and record the data as well.
Evidence from 1 person is hardly anything but I will keep on it because it honestly gave me perspective on how I'm ACTUALLY doing. Whether I'm rushing to clear or crawling through a higher difficulty. Also, It's easy for people to draw conclusions and say "Drop rate too low" when in reality, actual data of their runs might paint a different picture. After all, I would know since I am one of those players who have terrible loot luck. Hell, I've played d3v from release until I beat Diablo on Inferno a month later with not a single legendary drop (the promptly quit). And before logging my data (Paragon 11-195) the only "top tier" loot that I've gotten is a Magefist and a RoRG. And up to now I haven't seen a single Legendary Potion!
So, is it really just Apophenia? or are there really some patterns? We might never know, but it sure is fun to try.
Comments / suggestions / criticisms are always welcome
Thanks for posting. I'm sitting on a pile of data but too lazy to post. Well, and honestly too scared to post because of some stuff that I read recently.
Anyways, some "requests": Could you add a top column to sum it all up (playtime, rifts, legendaries), maybe a few more lines to sum it all up for each individual setup (Torment level, solo/group)? Also, could you separate Kadala legendaries (log them separatly and subtract them from rift legendaries)?
Edit: One interesting thing to see is the wide spread of drop rates. There are instances of 10 legs within really short amount of time, and no legs for a really long time. Exactly RNG. That's why I call BS on all those "10 legs/h" or "0 legs/h" posts...
Also, the reason Kadala is done in "real time" is because of the Kadala sniffing test I've been doing. The theory is if you have a streak of legs from a Rift (2+ in the span of 5 mins), it is also the best time to gamble before Blizz "reset" your leg timer.
Thanks for the comments.
Also, That Comment above about the Going to Kadala When you get a couple drops back to back really fast is a good idea. Im Gunna log those results also, Im Curious to see if there really is something on weight in that idea..
If you are interested in seeing or sending me Info Or if you want to see info that i have stocked up send me a message on my Site @ WWW.FusionStreamD3.Com . KK See ya! Keep Up The Good Work.
32 hours 50 minutes, 95 legendary drops, 6000 shards spent
Like for me example, my character is incredibly streaky as you can see from both the clumps AND the gaps of my spreadsheet.
Another thing is with Kadala. I notice 2 things about her according to my log.
- I definitely get more off her if I do it in a looting streak. And absolutely nothing if I gamble when I'm on a dry spell.
- When I keep gambling on the same piece, she gives a lot of duplicates that mirrors what you get in-game for the same piece (e.g. If you get Swamp Land Waders in your rift you'll get tons from her and no Hammer Jammers)
Fair warming again though, the human mind sees patterns where there isn't. This could very well be just superstitious belief in my part
---
To the people who wants to do what I'm doing or have already one currently, I would be very happy to link your spreadsheets in the OP then if I have time, consolidate it into 1 "Diablofans members Leg Drop Spreadsheet" if I have time
If you can give me a good reason to be more attentive and separate them I would consider it.
Updated with drops from the Anniversary buff. As well as Bounty runs.
I can't seem to post / edit forum posts in my main account. All it says is "Loading Editor". If anyone can point me into the right direction on who to approach regarding this it would be greatly appreciated.
Have you tried cooking up some "scientific data" on lottery numbers, im sure if you look hard enough, you will see a pattern that will make you rich.
Currently played toon: https://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Rage-2973/hero/97362116
1. random for computers is never random. there is an algorithm out there generating this and it's completely reasonable to try and find patterns in the code.
2. there is no reason to believe this randomness is strictly a simple roll. there easily can be factors that we don't know aobut playing the back ground that could be playing factors into these random rolls.
Nevermind, not going to enage into a tinfoil hat conversation.
Currently played toon: https://eu.battle.net/d3/en/profile/Rage-2973/hero/97362116