Anybody else getting repeat legendary drops? In the past 2-3 days, I've gotten doubles of Standoff, the axe that spawns a fallen champion, Manald Heal, Oculus Ring, Duncraig's Cross. etc. List goes on, close to a dozen at this point. Almost no new drops, pretty much JUST repeats of those. I get RNG, but with hundreds of legendary drops, it's a little hard to believe my streak is pure coincidence.
Legendaries do have rarity. Some legendaries are designed to be really rare, while some should drop more often. Now you are just kind of unlucky with getting just those.
What Drgreenthump said. Personally, i consider myself pretty lucky to only have had one occurrence of duplicate legendary out of the 25 or so i've found in the past 3 days, and that is the Pig Sticker.
Some legendaries seem to drop more often than others... Like the broken crown for an example. Had it drop for me at least 4 times in the last few days. I guess it's just how the game is designed... Kinda sucks at times, i know.
Not only that but from my understanding there's a lot of torment legendaries that are locked to RoS and the current torment-only legendary pool is pretty low so your bound to find repeats.
"Hundreds of legendaries" in the "past 2-3 days"? We're exaggerating a bit here, aren't we.
Well, this is something I keep saying for over a decade, since the early days of WoW: The human mind is incapable of understanding "randomness". Many people think of "random" that a dice being thrown six times should yield 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (not necessarily in this order). However, this is not random, this would be uniform distribution. Random means that 123456 can happen, but 111111 can happen as well. As soon as a "random result" is not uniformly distributed, the human mind constructs a theory as to why the result is not randomly distributed - many people think that after rolling a dice twice and getting a "1" twice, it's very unlikely that the next roll will be a "1". But the probability (looking at that single roll) will still be the same, obviously.
So, what you're perceiving is just a small sample. What I did many years ago when I started programming was to write a program that would roll a single dice many times, summarize the results, but also summarize odd streaks (occurrences of the same number in succession, results like 123456, and so on). When I rolled the dice 12 times, the result was almost never uniformly distributed. When I rolled the dice 12000 times, I would always have perfect 1/6 distribution for all rolls. But within those 12000 rolls there were really strange streaks, like 15 or 20 times the same number. Why? It's a rare occurrence, but as my sample was larger, I was exposed to more "abominations". Now imagine the server rolling billions of legendary drops every day. You just see a small sample out of these billions of drops. For the server it probably is uniformly distributed. For you, it appears to be completely skewed - because of the small sample.
TL;DR: We are humans, and as such we can't cope with randomness. And especially after playing for only a few days your sample cannot be possibly large enough to draw any conclusion at all.
While it is true that some legendaries are more likely to drop than others, which has always been true, anyone who is truly getting the same drops -- especially more than once - does have reason to be suspicious.
I've had more than 15 legendary drops so far myself.. I happen to get two of the same legendary crafting materials off of corpses. Other than that, every legendary is most certainly unique for me thus far.
Now you can literally get any legendary in the game at any level. To believe that, "oh, andariels visage for the 5th time? Oh, well, RNG is RNG" would just be silly.
Unless everyone is finding 5 Andy Visage's in a row it IS RNG. See Bagstone's dice example.
Statistically there is someone somewhere (assuming an infinite number of people playing D3) that is finding nothing but Andy's Visages'
May the Developers have mercy on his soul...
But I've found 2 Wildwood's (always Poison 1h sword and always +experience) off of only two skeleton kings. (second was 1250 dps with 400 int and 30% chance of 315% bleed.)
No. Using a 6 sided dice does not equate to the statistical odds of looting, say, 20 legendaries and having 5 of those be andariels visage. 1 6-sided dice does not equal dozens or hundreds of legendary drop possibilities.
Is it possible? Yes. Is it just, *shrug*, oh well.. nothing to see here. To be expected.
No.
That's like saying, "Oh, another guy won the lottery this week.. *yawn*".
Yea maybe the odds aren't the same, but the gist here is that it's incredibly unlikely..
Anyway.. just my opinion.
For anyone who is a math whiz, feel free to create some sort of algorithm that would approximate the odds of a person finding 2, 3, 4, 5.. etc of the *same* legendary in Loot 2.0, since February 25th, *and* being a member of this forum and posting about it..
And whatever else may be relevant.. If anyone does that, it'd be interesting to see what the chances of any of this happening may actually be.. which I'd thin would be pretty difficult without a lot more data?
Use a D20 then, or a D100, statistics scales very well (seriously go do it).
There are far too many unknowns to calculate the odds of someone finding more than one of legendary, but for people at low level the odds are greater as there are less legs available.
Quite frankly, i am getting alot of low end wiz, DH and crusader rares dropping for m.
Well, this is something I keep saying for over a decade, since the early days of WoW: The human mind is incapable of understanding "randomness". Many people think of "random" that a dice being thrown six times should yield 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (not necessarily in this order). However, this is not random, this would be uniform distribution. Random means that 123456 can happen, but 111111 can happen as well. As soon as a "random result" is not uniformly distributed, the human mind constructs a theory as to why the result is not randomly distributed - many people think that after rolling a dice twice and getting a "1" twice, it's very unlikely that the next roll will be a "1". But the probability (looking at that single roll) will still be the same, obviously.
So, what you're perceiving is just a small sample. What I did many years ago when I started programming was to write a program that would roll a single dice many times, summarize the results, but also summarize odd streaks (occurrences of the same number in succession, results like 123456, and so on). When I rolled the dice 12 times, the result was almost never uniformly distributed. When I rolled the dice 12000 times, I would always have perfect 1/6 distribution for all rolls. But within those 12000 rolls there were really strange streaks, like 15 or 20 times the same number. Why? It's a rare occurrence, but as my sample was larger, I was exposed to more "abominations". Now imagine the server rolling billions of legendary drops every day. You just see a small sample out of these billions of drops. For the server it probably is uniformly distributed. For you, it appears to be completely skewed - because of the small sample.
TL;DR: We are humans, and as such we can't cope with randomness. And especially after playing for only a few days your sample cannot be possibly large enough to draw any conclusion at all.
I've had more than 15 legendary drops so far myself.. I happen to get two of the same legendary crafting materials off of corpses. Other than that, every legendary is most certainly unique for me thus far.
Now you can literally get any legendary in the game at any level. To believe that, "oh, andariels visage for the 5th time? Oh, well, RNG is RNG" would just be silly.
Statistically there is someone somewhere (assuming an infinite number of people playing D3) that is finding nothing but Andy's Visages'
But I've found 2 Wildwood's (always Poison 1h sword and always +experience) off of only two skeleton kings. (second was 1250 dps with 400 int and 30% chance of 315% bleed.)
Is it possible? Yes. Is it just, *shrug*, oh well.. nothing to see here. To be expected.
No.
That's like saying, "Oh, another guy won the lottery this week.. *yawn*".
Yea maybe the odds aren't the same, but the gist here is that it's incredibly unlikely..
Anyway.. just my opinion.
For anyone who is a math whiz, feel free to create some sort of algorithm that would approximate the odds of a person finding 2, 3, 4, 5.. etc of the *same* legendary in Loot 2.0, since February 25th, *and* being a member of this forum and posting about it..
And whatever else may be relevant.. If anyone does that, it'd be interesting to see what the chances of any of this happening may actually be.. which I'd thin would be pretty difficult without a lot more data?
There are far too many unknowns to calculate the odds of someone finding more than one of legendary, but for people at low level the odds are greater as there are less legs available.