I was forum banned for "harassment" for this post. The entire thread was deleted, read for yourself and decide if I'm harassing or Blizzard is hiding the truth. I should've worded it without calling bliz incompetent or liars I suppose and it would've been more difficult to delete and ban but man do they piss me off.
Thread Title:
RNG is a lie. Bliz = liars or incompetent
Last night mp6, 3 key wardens in a row no key. Tonight mp5 4 key wardens in a row no key, so yes I'm aggravated as I write this. These are successively 6.4% and 6.25% odds of happening. We all have "that guy" as a friend who has gotten 10-20 100m+ set pieces who have lower MF and are lower paragon than you, while you've never gotten anything worth 50m. I have one HC WD friend who got 3 pieces of his Zunimassa's set in in a matter of a few days around paragon 20. We're talking a WD getting 3 of 5 of the set specifically designed for his class. The odds against that are astronomically bad -- as in so bad that the only way it could have happened was other than random. I'll also add that the same WD just today got 3 set pieces on HC for other classes worth >100m each. He also farms mp0 and has managed to get keys at a rate far higher than 5%.
So, how is loot distributed? Who knows, but Blizzard's insistence that it is RNG is laughable. Fanboys who post RNG is RNG when anybody says anything different remind me of lemmings that jump off the cliff behind the million that just committed suicide. Who knows maybe their blind loyalty earns them +1% MF every time they lick Blizzard's boots and I get another -1% (which would explain why my loot drops are so atrocious). There is some variable somewhere that makes some accounts more prone to good loot then others. Either Bliz doesn't know which makes them incompetent, or they know and aren't telling which makes them liars. Blizzard has lost all credibility by letting their lead designer make his favorite class twice as good as any other, so them telling us that it is RNG carries no weight in my mind.
BTW, anybody want one of my 6 hellracks or ivory towers? I've no shortage of those items..
EDIT: btw, Barb friend of mine just had 2 Ivory Towers drop within 15 yards of each other. They are IDENTICAL. RNG huh? BS! Quit lying bliz and start explaining
Posting "rng is rng" doesn't make one a lemming, it means one has a basic understanding of statistics. You and your 6 tinfoil hat-wearing friends can't look at your loot drops and conclude anything at all about drop rates or the true randomness of drops. If, on the other hand, you had 600,000 friends compiling their drops into one master list, then you might start to have enough data to probe the underlying statistics.
So you have gotten crap, and somebody else had amazing luck? Big deal. I suggest googling the phrase "small number statistics" and enlightening yourself before continuing to sound like a total moron on the internet.
I dont know if you are deserving of a ban, but your post reeks of butthurt, you offer no constructive criticism and you promote conspiracy without any evidence aside from the anecdotal dribble you put forth.
I wouldn't have banned you unless this is the second or third time you wrote such a useless thread, but I definitely would have taken it down.
anyway: you got banned for a bad language. you call ME a liar on MY forums, which are dedicated to MY game, and present a so called "truth" as if you looked behind a curtain and saw everything? i kick your ass out of my forum. live with it.
oh, RNG in computer science terms isn't really random. at least you can't compare it to a thrown dice for example. but it is much more random than a guy who just picks a number,
First, I'm not desperate to search friends on internet and forums. If that's your case, your problem.
Second, I haven't called you a liar. As a matter of fact, I haven't even written anything to you. Put your glasses on and see on which post I replyed.
Third, If this is YOUR forum and YOUR game, you wouldn't write something like this. But you are probably just a bad-mannered kid.
yeah, i see how it is possible that you confuse a few things.
first: silentmike found a friend in you. someone who has just the same opinions when almost everybody in this thread / forum / maybe even game has another with more proof etc., there was nothing about you or me and a common hobby like finding friends over the internet.
second: obviously those statements were from the point of view of blizzard. or do i have an official blizzard aura?
third: well, i sometimes have an ill temper and zero to none tolerance on a few select topics and a very broad variety of people. but i am neither bad-mannered nor a kid. anymore. physically.
There was a 1/250 chance of getting no key drops like you did on your successive runs. In other words, if 250 people did what you did, one guy can be expected to get zero keys. That guy was you.
Your insistence that this is somehow impossible is especially puzzling, considering you seem to understand how a binomial distribution works.
I agree that your situation sucks, and it's a good argument for the implementation of a pseudo-RNG system that mitigates streaking. For example, some games feature mechanics that slowly scale your chances upwards until a success is rolled, at which point the probability resets.
Just remember that in the D3 system, for every drought, there is a flood.
Your disturbing lack of any luck means your karma is very bad. You probably were an horrible person in your precedent life. That's why Blizzard banned you.
You should stop playing video games altogether and do something meaningful of your life to atune for your past sins.
Haha love it, +1!!!
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
Silent mike (who probably left because no one would hear his side, i think sen5ei is actually you anyways), I will tell you a story.
I went to vegas over christmas with my family. Christmas is a good time to go because you are statistically more likely to win at games of chance (roulette, slots, etc), papers have been published on this phenomena, you would think this supports you but it doesnt. I played roulette on christmas day with $1000. I watched a few rounds and decided that betting red or black consistently would keep me at the table longer for drinks.
This is where the support for you goes significantly downhill. I began betting red and figured it would hit about 50% of the time (a little less due to green spaces). I kept doubling my bet from 5 to 10 to 20 and so on until red hit, red did not hit while I was betting and black was landed on 16 times in a row. If you calculate how many scenarios there could have been, there were 65536 scenarios (i am not accounting for green spaces) and the one that occurred seemed the most statistically unlikely, but it is just as likely as any other scenario (mixture of red and black).
I saw people around me winning and of course that was frustrating, but the fact of the matter was that even if the house odds were better (due to seasonal phenomena) they are still odds and those things can happen. The scenario is different every time. So even if there is some blizzard conspiracy that stacked the odds in our favor at the beginning of 1.05 (I doubt it), there are still scenarios that will happen where things may not drop in your favor.
This is a good example because it demonstrates that the odds can be tipped in your favor (like MP6 meaning 60% chance of a key, or blizz increasing the leg drop rate (which i still think is stupid and not real)) and you can still lose.
EDIT: When I say 65536 scenarios I mean 2^16 (2 colors and 16 different occasions), I know there are some fancy stats people that roam the forums so I wanted to clarify myself
OP, one of the reasons people are reading/posting here instead of the official forums is actually to avoid posters like you. Just saying.
Also, sorry to break it for you but it looks like some of your friends have been using the RMAH and just pretended they got lucky. 3 pieces of the set you want in a matter of days? Yeah, right.
RNG is RNG... doesnt matter if you run MP1 or MP9.
You can run 10 times MP9, and never get a key, or you can do 10 times MP1 and get 10 keys.
Only way to get guranteed Key Drops is MP10.
I was forum banned for "harassment" for this post. The entire thread was deleted, read for yourself and decide if I'm harassing or Blizzard is hiding the truth. I should've worded it without calling bliz incompetent or liars I suppose and it would've been more difficult to delete and ban but man do they piss me off.
Thread Title:
RNG is a lie. Bliz = liars or incompetent
Last night mp6, 3 key wardens in a row no key. Tonight mp5 4 key wardens in a row no key, so yes I'm aggravated as I write this. These are successively 6.4% and 6.25% odds of happening. We all have "that guy" as a friend who has gotten 10-20 100m+ set pieces who have lower MF and are lower paragon than you, while you've never gotten anything worth 50m. I have one HC WD friend who got 3 pieces of his Zunimassa's set in in a matter of a few days around paragon 20. We're talking a WD getting 3 of 5 of the set specifically designed for his class. The odds against that are astronomically bad -- as in so bad that the only way it could have happened was other than random. I'll also add that the same WD just today got 3 set pieces on HC for other classes worth >100m each. He also farms mp0 and has managed to get keys at a rate far higher than 5%.
So, how is loot distributed? Who knows, but Blizzard's insistence that it is RNG is laughable. Fanboys who post RNG is RNG when anybody says anything different remind me of lemmings that jump off the cliff behind the million that just committed suicide. Who knows maybe their blind loyalty earns them +1% MF every time they lick Blizzard's boots and I get another -1% (which would explain why my loot drops are so atrocious). There is some variable somewhere that makes some accounts more prone to good loot then others. Either Bliz doesn't know which makes them incompetent, or they know and aren't telling which makes them liars. Blizzard has lost all credibility by letting their lead designer make his favorite class twice as good as any other, so them telling us that it is RNG carries no weight in my mind.
BTW, anybody want one of my 6 hellracks or ivory towers? I've no shortage of those items..
EDIT: btw, Barb friend of mine just had 2 Ivory Towers drop within 15 yards of each other. They are IDENTICAL. RNG huh? BS! Quit lying bliz and start explaining
You are spreading pure BS on their forums, you post some minor examples and claim that they are proof that blizzard lie.
You need thousands of similar runs to even get close to proving any of this, i have gotten goldskin 3 times in a row before patch 1.0.4, sure the chances are small, but does that make for a cconspiracy theory? no.
If you wanted to be taken seriously you would have done it in a much more constructive way and with actual proof and some data backing up your claims.
A family friend has won the lotto twice, each time he got over 1mil in winnings, yet many i know have been playing the lotto for a lot more years and never won anything worth mentioning, i guess Blizzard has their hand in that as well.
I think the OP is never gonna post here ever again.
Wrong. To date all we've had is people calling names and asking me to run some complex statistical analysis. My "proof" is experience, yours is "blizzard say so". How can you crap on my proof and use Blizzard's word as yours?
If there can be a bug that creates identical legendaries 15 yards apart, there can be a bug in their "RNG" method of distributing loot. But keep being fanboys and defending bliz. IMO they're a bunch of liars who sold out to the almighty dollar ages ago. My post to them is derogatory because I hate being lied to and they deserve my ire.
OP, one of the reasons people are reading/posting here instead of the official forums is actually to avoid posters like you. Just saying.
Also, sorry to break it for you but it looks like some of your friends have been using the RMAH and just pretended they got lucky. 3 pieces of the set you want in a matter of days? Yeah, right.
RMAH HC? Yeah, right. See what I mean, you're trying to argue against me and you support my argument. What I said is exactly right, he got 3 set pieces of his class set in <2 days. The probability of this is so small to be virtually impossible, yet it happened. There is a reason, and it is not RNG -- there is something to the loot other than randomness which bliz either does not know about, or does not want to share.
Wrong. To date all we've had is people calling names and asking me to run some complex statistical analysis. My "proof" is experience, yours is "blizzard say so". How can you crap on my proof and use Blizzard's word as yours?
If there can be a bug that creates identical legendaries 15 yards apart, there can be a bug in their "RNG" method of distributing loot. But keep being fanboys and defending bliz. IMO they're a bunch of liars who sold out to the almighty dollar ages ago. My post to them is derogatory because I hate being lied to and they deserve my ire.
You seem to be ignoring all posts pertaining to their experiences with loot drops yet your personal experience is the only allowed factual end all be all information available. Is it possible that there is a coding issue with their random and if so then stop playing or deal with it. Other than that please STFU, herp a derp derpa derpa doo!
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
There was a 1/250 chance of getting no key drops like you did on your successive runs. In other words, if 250 people did what you did, one guy can be expected to get zero keys. That guy was you.
Your insistence that this is somehow impossible is especially puzzling, considering you seem to understand how a binomial distribution works.
I agree that your situation sucks, and it's a good argument for the implementation of a pseudo-RNG system that mitigates streaking. For example, some games feature mechanics that slowly scale your chances upwards until a success is rolled, at which point the probability resets.
Just remember that in the D3 system, for every drought, there is a flood.
And finally a rationale rebuke...
Yes, I realize that two successive strings of bad luck on a key run are unlikely yet possible. But what about a single person getting 3 set items of the class they are playing in a very short amount of time. What about identical items dropping in close proximity? Where there is smoke there is fire, the Bliz system certainly contains an element of randomness, but there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG.
What do you expect you have not provided anything to stimulate an intelligent answer. Your 3 days of runs = enough data to analyze ALL droughts and floods of items on every server... beginning to see why you’re not taken seriously? I suppose when I opened the first chest 10 seconds in the game and it was a legendary is a statistic anomaly as well... or how about the fact I never found one for a few days after, or when I found a near perfect rolled IK armor on MP0 with no MF at paragon level 3 from a unique monster. I could provide hundreds of examples from my personal experience (hmm seem familiar?) but I’m not dumb enough to consider it valid data or a factual scenario of what is really occurring.
TL;DR
Did you know when you flip a coin it’s not a 50% chance to land on tails? Human perception of random is very inaccurate, I could link some scholarly papers on that if you would like.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Playing Diablo since 97. I know nothing and having nothing good to say, I be a troll.
Insultingly refer to other characters, players, Blizzard employees, or groups of people
There are 1000's of people who get banned on the official forums every day because they never took the time to read the TOS/TOU & EULA witch you agreed to when making an account, and/or using the forums.
There was a 1/250 chance of getting no key drops like you did on your successive runs. In other words, if 250 people did what you did, one guy can be expected to get zero keys. That guy was you.
Your insistence that this is somehow impossible is especially puzzling, considering you seem to understand how a binomial distribution works.
I agree that your situation sucks, and it's a good argument for the implementation of a pseudo-RNG system that mitigates streaking. For example, some games feature mechanics that slowly scale your chances upwards until a success is rolled, at which point the probability resets.
Just remember that in the D3 system, for every drought, there is a flood.
And finally a rationale rebuke...
Yes, I realize that two successive strings of bad luck on a key run are unlikely yet possible. But what about a single person getting 3 set items of the class they are playing in a very short amount of time. What about identical items dropping in close proximity? Where there is smoke there is fire, the Bliz system certainly contains an element of randomness, but there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG.
Now this is where you lose a lot of the posters here, including myself.
Why can't a person get 3 set items in a short period of time? Is it impossible? Does the system "shut off" the possibility of getting legendaries? No, therefore you're wrong.
Identical items can drop in close proximity and it has been brought to blizzard's attention.
"there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG" - you do not know every player and can't speak for "too many oddities". This is a case of the loud minority speaking about weird things happening and making it seem like there might be a problem when there isn't. Not every player is getting odd drops (most aren't), and sometimes we do (i got 4 legendaries in one run a few weeks back before 1.05). You should look at that loot thread posted a month or two ago that follows inferno drops related to magic find, NV stacks, etc. That is a VERY THOROUGH thread and has THOUSANDS of data points to your miniscule number of experiences. It has real data with real information, not speculation like this
Enough of this thread. Everything that needed to be said has been said. The message is there, its up to the OP now to either listen to it or not.
Feel free to create a new thread to discuss how RNG works. I'm sure the community will be delighted to discuss that with you, if it's done in a polite and civil manner.
Closed.
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Posting "rng is rng" doesn't make one a lemming, it means one has a basic understanding of statistics. You and your 6 tinfoil hat-wearing friends can't look at your loot drops and conclude anything at all about drop rates or the true randomness of drops. If, on the other hand, you had 600,000 friends compiling their drops into one master list, then you might start to have enough data to probe the underlying statistics.
So you have gotten crap, and somebody else had amazing luck? Big deal. I suggest googling the phrase "small number statistics" and enlightening yourself before continuing to sound like a total moron on the internet.
I wouldn't have banned you unless this is the second or third time you wrote such a useless thread, but I definitely would have taken it down.
yeah, i see how it is possible that you confuse a few things.
first: silentmike found a friend in you. someone who has just the same opinions when almost everybody in this thread / forum / maybe even game has another with more proof etc., there was nothing about you or me and a common hobby like finding friends over the internet.
second: obviously those statements were from the point of view of blizzard. or do i have an official blizzard aura?
third: well, i sometimes have an ill temper and zero to none tolerance on a few select topics and a very broad variety of people. but i am neither bad-mannered nor a kid. anymore. physically.
There was a 1/250 chance of getting no key drops like you did on your successive runs. In other words, if 250 people did what you did, one guy can be expected to get zero keys. That guy was you.
Your insistence that this is somehow impossible is especially puzzling, considering you seem to understand how a binomial distribution works.
I agree that your situation sucks, and it's a good argument for the implementation of a pseudo-RNG system that mitigates streaking. For example, some games feature mechanics that slowly scale your chances upwards until a success is rolled, at which point the probability resets.
Just remember that in the D3 system, for every drought, there is a flood.
Haha love it, +1!!!
I went to vegas over christmas with my family. Christmas is a good time to go because you are statistically more likely to win at games of chance (roulette, slots, etc), papers have been published on this phenomena, you would think this supports you but it doesnt. I played roulette on christmas day with $1000. I watched a few rounds and decided that betting red or black consistently would keep me at the table longer for drinks.
This is where the support for you goes significantly downhill. I began betting red and figured it would hit about 50% of the time (a little less due to green spaces). I kept doubling my bet from 5 to 10 to 20 and so on until red hit, red did not hit while I was betting and black was landed on 16 times in a row. If you calculate how many scenarios there could have been, there were 65536 scenarios (i am not accounting for green spaces) and the one that occurred seemed the most statistically unlikely, but it is just as likely as any other scenario (mixture of red and black).
I saw people around me winning and of course that was frustrating, but the fact of the matter was that even if the house odds were better (due to seasonal phenomena) they are still odds and those things can happen. The scenario is different every time. So even if there is some blizzard conspiracy that stacked the odds in our favor at the beginning of 1.05 (I doubt it), there are still scenarios that will happen where things may not drop in your favor.
This is a good example because it demonstrates that the odds can be tipped in your favor (like MP6 meaning 60% chance of a key, or blizz increasing the leg drop rate (which i still think is stupid and not real)) and you can still lose.
EDIT: When I say 65536 scenarios I mean 2^16 (2 colors and 16 different occasions), I know there are some fancy stats people that roam the forums so I wanted to clarify myself
Also, sorry to break it for you but it looks like some of your friends have been using the RMAH and just pretended they got lucky. 3 pieces of the set you want in a matter of days? Yeah, right.
You can run 10 times MP9, and never get a key, or you can do 10 times MP1 and get 10 keys.
Only way to get guranteed Key Drops is MP10.
You are spreading pure BS on their forums, you post some minor examples and claim that they are proof that blizzard lie.
You need thousands of similar runs to even get close to proving any of this, i have gotten goldskin 3 times in a row before patch 1.0.4, sure the chances are small, but does that make for a cconspiracy theory? no.
If you wanted to be taken seriously you would have done it in a much more constructive way and with actual proof and some data backing up your claims.
A family friend has won the lotto twice, each time he got over 1mil in winnings, yet many i know have been playing the lotto for a lot more years and never won anything worth mentioning, i guess Blizzard has their hand in that as well.
Wrong. To date all we've had is people calling names and asking me to run some complex statistical analysis. My "proof" is experience, yours is "blizzard say so". How can you crap on my proof and use Blizzard's word as yours?
If there can be a bug that creates identical legendaries 15 yards apart, there can be a bug in their "RNG" method of distributing loot. But keep being fanboys and defending bliz. IMO they're a bunch of liars who sold out to the almighty dollar ages ago. My post to them is derogatory because I hate being lied to and they deserve my ire.
RMAH HC? Yeah, right. See what I mean, you're trying to argue against me and you support my argument. What I said is exactly right, he got 3 set pieces of his class set in <2 days. The probability of this is so small to be virtually impossible, yet it happened. There is a reason, and it is not RNG -- there is something to the loot other than randomness which bliz either does not know about, or does not want to share.
You seem to be ignoring all posts pertaining to their experiences with loot drops yet your personal experience is the only allowed factual end all be all information available. Is it possible that there is a coding issue with their random and if so then stop playing or deal with it. Other than that please STFU, herp a derp derpa derpa doo!
And finally a rationale rebuke...
Yes, I realize that two successive strings of bad luck on a key run are unlikely yet possible. But what about a single person getting 3 set items of the class they are playing in a very short amount of time. What about identical items dropping in close proximity? Where there is smoke there is fire, the Bliz system certainly contains an element of randomness, but there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG.
What do you expect you have not provided anything to stimulate an intelligent answer. Your 3 days of runs = enough data to analyze ALL droughts and floods of items on every server... beginning to see why you’re not taken seriously? I suppose when I opened the first chest 10 seconds in the game and it was a legendary is a statistic anomaly as well... or how about the fact I never found one for a few days after, or when I found a near perfect rolled IK armor on MP0 with no MF at paragon level 3 from a unique monster. I could provide hundreds of examples from my personal experience (hmm seem familiar?) but I’m not dumb enough to consider it valid data or a factual scenario of what is really occurring.
TL;DR
Did you know when you flip a coin it’s not a 50% chance to land on tails? Human perception of random is very inaccurate, I could link some scholarly papers on that if you would like.
That is a website for probability for middle school students. Might want to give it a gloss over.
While I can understand your frustration in the manner this is just how the game works for loot. Also you got banned for a very good reason.
http://us.battle.net/en/community/conduct#harassment
There are 1000's of people who get banned on the official forums every day because they never took the time to read the TOS/TOU & EULA witch you agreed to when making an account, and/or using the forums.
Now this is where you lose a lot of the posters here, including myself.
Why can't a person get 3 set items in a short period of time? Is it impossible? Does the system "shut off" the possibility of getting legendaries? No, therefore you're wrong.
Identical items can drop in close proximity and it has been brought to blizzard's attention.
"there are too many oddities to just explain away as purely RNG" - you do not know every player and can't speak for "too many oddities". This is a case of the loud minority speaking about weird things happening and making it seem like there might be a problem when there isn't. Not every player is getting odd drops (most aren't), and sometimes we do (i got 4 legendaries in one run a few weeks back before 1.05). You should look at that loot thread posted a month or two ago that follows inferno drops related to magic find, NV stacks, etc. That is a VERY THOROUGH thread and has THOUSANDS of data points to your miniscule number of experiences. It has real data with real information, not speculation like this
Feel free to create a new thread to discuss how RNG works. I'm sure the community will be delighted to discuss that with you, if it's done in a polite and civil manner.
Closed.