I'm interested -- and I bet many of you would be too -- in a crowd-sourced prediction of the gold-to-dollar exchange rate after the RMAH has had a month to stabilize.
Let's set the RMAH launch date as the first day it's live in the US region and stays live for a subsequent 48 hours. (Why? Because if like the commodity market, it's down for many days shortly after launch, none of that time would function as "time for prices to stabilize".)
30 days after that, how much gold will $1 buy you? (Remember that fees are paid by the seller.)
I will edit this top post with commentary on the state of the poll as of just before the RMAH launch date. Poll answers after that will of course be influenced by the observed gold/$ exchange rate up to that point.
**EDIT 6/12** RMAH launched today, as scheduled! However it appears the commodity side is not enabled yet. So let's clarify the "RMAH launch date" to be the date they actually launch the ability to buy gold for dollars. If that feature stays live for 48 hours, then that launch date is our day 1, and the poll question is how much gold will $1 buy you 30 days after that?
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Note: why am I posting this in General rather than US/Trade? Because I believe it's of general interest even to many non-traders, and in the trading forum it would be buried under 5 pages (I counted) of WTS/WTB posts after 24 hours. If it must be transferred to US/Trade, could we please sticky it so we can get a good sampling of answers.
Come to think of it, it would be great to sticky it in the General forum. Even if answers to the topic die down, it will still be of interest to eyeball the state of the poll -- at least until a month after RMAH launch.
it will probably about $1/mil right out of the gate. day one you might see 5-6 per mil but judging just by ancedotal evidence and the prices over the last few weeks... itll be cheap and quickly. of course this will be nice for avoiding the upgraded repair costs and buying potions... but by the time RMAH ACTUALLY debuts, we'll probably all be farming a4 inferno and 1shotting everything =P
hell, tons of people are already. i'm a pretty casual player and i'm only a few upgrades away.
$1/million sounds about right to me, and i'm willing to forcast out that a year after launch it will be more like $1/billion. Gold is already inflating at such a ridiculous rate that gold will be worthless very soon, if not already.
even mediocre items on the gold AH are already costing 10-100million gold. Unless you get lucky with drops, you farm gold, suck it up and buy items, and that cost keeps going up and up every day from what i've seen.
Blizz did just announce that they've banned thousands of accounts for breaking the Ters of Service in various ways, including botting. Clearly getting their house in order for the RMAH launch. That removed a lot of gold from the economy too. Remains to be seen how much impact ToS-breaking tricks will have going forward.
State of the poll at this writing (for future reference of what people thought before there was any real-money trading data at all):
$1=
10,000 gold 4%
30,000 gold 2%
100,000 gold 14%
300,000 gold 16%
1 million gold 32%
3 million gold 14%
10 million gold 7%
30 million gold or more 11%
I'm actually starting to wonder if the GAH will survive a full year. It's looking like gold may lose any real value eventually. It went down by over 100% in just under a month.
i voted for $1/10mil this will all depend on how much currency starts to appear on the RMAH. Gold is farmable, but money will only appear on the market when someone decides to load their account. Just for an example let's say there's 1 million players in the US. Out of that 1 million let's say 10% of those players load an average of $20 onto their account. That's $2,000,000 that'll get spread around into the economy. that's only $2/player and the net worth of most players are in their gear not so much how much they have in their stash.
That's also not even counting how many players will try to cash out some of the money in the market. With gold sinks barely scratching the economy and with real money being both limited to those willing to spend money and players cashing out or spending the money on other things like the blizzard store for WoW novelty items. The $ to gold exchange rate will start to sky rocket. I also see the currency for the RMAH becoming the new SOJ for D3. As players put more high lvl items onto the RMAH instead of the GAH people will start to try to gain currency either but putting items on the RMAH or by selling gold on it, so they can purchase items on the RMAH. But good idea for a thread. i'm actually kind of interested in this topic too as my brother and I were actually talking about this today.
$2.50 = 1 million gold cause $.25 per 100k is as low as it will go (literally hard capped), and boy do people have gold to sell
I recently blew most of my gold on high-end crafting mats (to protect against inflation), so I wasn't able to confirm this. But it appears to me that the hard cap is simply that you can't put up a gold auction for less than $1. So if you had between 4-500,000 on hand, the hard cap would be $1 for 4x100,000 gold = $.25 per 100k.
Can anyone confirm you can post gold with a price of $1 for 500,000 gold or more? Is there a limit to how much gold you can post for a dollar?
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Let's set the RMAH launch date as the first day it's live in the US region and stays live for a subsequent 48 hours. (Why? Because if like the commodity market, it's down for many days shortly after launch, none of that time would function as "time for prices to stabilize".)
30 days after that, how much gold will $1 buy you? (Remember that fees are paid by the seller.)
I will edit this top post with commentary on the state of the poll as of just before the RMAH launch date. Poll answers after that will of course be influenced by the observed gold/$ exchange rate up to that point.
**EDIT 6/12** RMAH launched today, as scheduled! However it appears the commodity side is not enabled yet. So let's clarify the "RMAH launch date" to be the date they actually launch the ability to buy gold for dollars. If that feature stays live for 48 hours, then that launch date is our day 1, and the poll question is how much gold will $1 buy you 30 days after that?
-------------
Note: why am I posting this in General rather than US/Trade? Because I believe it's of general interest even to many non-traders, and in the trading forum it would be buried under 5 pages (I counted) of WTS/WTB posts after 24 hours. If it must be transferred to US/Trade, could we please sticky it so we can get a good sampling of answers.
Come to think of it, it would be great to sticky it in the General forum. Even if answers to the topic die down, it will still be of interest to eyeball the state of the poll -- at least until a month after RMAH launch.
hell, tons of people are already. i'm a pretty casual player and i'm only a few upgrades away.
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Curse Premiumeven mediocre items on the gold AH are already costing 10-100million gold. Unless you get lucky with drops, you farm gold, suck it up and buy items, and that cost keeps going up and up every day from what i've seen.
$1=
10,000 gold 4%
30,000 gold 2%
100,000 gold 14%
300,000 gold 16%
1 million gold 32%
3 million gold 14%
10 million gold 7%
30 million gold or more 11%
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Wise ElderI'm actually starting to wonder if the GAH will survive a full year. It's looking like gold may lose any real value eventually. It went down by over 100% in just under a month.
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That's also not even counting how many players will try to cash out some of the money in the market. With gold sinks barely scratching the economy and with real money being both limited to those willing to spend money and players cashing out or spending the money on other things like the blizzard store for WoW novelty items. The $ to gold exchange rate will start to sky rocket. I also see the currency for the RMAH becoming the new SOJ for D3. As players put more high lvl items onto the RMAH instead of the GAH people will start to try to gain currency either but putting items on the RMAH or by selling gold on it, so they can purchase items on the RMAH. But good idea for a thread. i'm actually kind of interested in this topic too as my brother and I were actually talking about this today.
I recently blew most of my gold on high-end crafting mats (to protect against inflation), so I wasn't able to confirm this. But it appears to me that the hard cap is simply that you can't put up a gold auction for less than $1. So if you had between 4-500,000 on hand, the hard cap would be $1 for 4x100,000 gold = $.25 per 100k.
Can anyone confirm you can post gold with a price of $1 for 500,000 gold or more? Is there a limit to how much gold you can post for a dollar?